Pacific Flyway Data Book, 2025

Migratory Game Bird Monitoring: Estimates of Abundance, Harvest, and Hunter Activity

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Division of Migratory Bird Management
Pacific Flyway Office
http://www.pacificflyway.gov

11 September 2025

Introduction

The following abundance, harvest, and hunter activity data have been assembled for use by State and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) personnel in formulating recommendations for migratory bird hunting seasons in the Pacific Flyway. This collection of information can also serve as a desk-top reference for providing responses to inquiries from agency personnel, the media, and the public.

These data represent an extraordinary collaborative effort by many individuals from State, Federal, and other organizations. Thank you to all cooperators who have contributed toward this significant effort.

Some migratory bird surveys were not conducted in 2020 and 2021 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Consequently, some tables are missing data from these years as a result of no surveys being conducted.

Please note that abundance estimates are indices to abundance and not absolute population size. Abundance indices are either counts or estimates of a proportion of a population. The indices provide a measure of the relative abundance of a population over time.

Data Tables
Each data table represents a data asset and is uniquely numbered for ease of reference. See the table of contents for a list of available data tables. The data table number is the appropriate reference number for any figure or table produced for a data asset, particularly for questions and the supporting data. The sequential numbers assigned to each table and figure in this document is of no significance for reference and may change with each document update.

Document Navigation
There is an interactive table of contents to facilitate quickly locating data of interest. Data tables are organized into sections, each with a data type theme (e.g., abundance, harvest). Click on the section heading to expand the table of contents and see available data tables. Click on the primary heading or Introduction section in the table of contents to collapse all sections.

Time Series Statistics
Time series statistics are provided in a table for the primary monitoring data included in graphs. Missing values in the time series statistics table means that the statistic is not estimable. In these cases, missing values were used rather than “N/A” for aesthetics in the statistics table.

Figure and Data Access
Any figure in this document can be copied with a right mouse click over the figure of interest and then selecting “Copy image” or “Save image as.” Also, all data and figures in this report may be downloaded for use from an online portal. Each table and figure is referenced by the data table number it is associated with. Contact the Pacific Flyway Office for the URL of the online portal.

Technical Details
This report provides original data and calculations in support of cooperative Pacific Flyway Council and USFWS harvest strategy assessments and to help inform harvest management decisions for all migratory game bird populations. See the Pacific Flyway Council’s website for migratory game bird population management plans (http://www.pacificflyway.gov/management.asp). Unless otherwise noted, harvest management prescriptions apply to the hunting season starting the year after the title year of this data book so long as the data in the respective data table are current through the title year.

Original data are provided by the USFWS Headquarters Migratory Bird Program, USFWS Alaska Region, USFWS Mountain-Prairie Region, and the States. In some cases, Pacific Flyway Council management indices are derived from these data to help inform harvest management decisions. We note the original source of data before each data table and note how any management indices are calculated. The original data are generally included in annual USFWS and State population status and harvest reports and survey memos. Any use of the data should be by permission of the agency or agencies that provided the data (see Suggested Citations, below).

VCF and Fall Projection Estimates
A visibility correction factor (VCF; or fall projection adjustment factor) is applied to survey data for dusky Canada geese, cackling (minima) cackling geese, and Pacific white-fronted geese based on models fit to the data. Similarly, percent Ross’s geese in the California white goose survey is calculated based on a fitted model. Documentation of how these models were fit and estimates derived are in separate documents and available upon request of the USFWS Pacific Flyway Representative’s Office.

Missing Data and Moving 3-year Averages
Missing data from all or part of a survey year results in no management indices being calculated for that year. The only exception is for the winter counts including snow geese (so long as there are counts in at least California and Skagit-Fraser River Delta areas), brant (so long as there are counts in North America and Mexico), and tundra swans (so long as there are counts in the U.S. Atlantic and Mississippi flyways and Ontario, Canada). The total winter count is interpreted as the minimum known population size with no variance.

Moving 3-year averages are calculated as the 3 most recent available abundance estimates, and is an ad hoc way of reducing annual observation variance in survey estimates.

Suggested Citations
Any use or reference to the data provided in this report should be cited accordingly. Please contact the appropriate State or Federal representative for survey and citation information. State and Federal representatives contact information may be found on the Pacific Flyway Council’s website at http://www.pacificflyway.gov/contacts.asp.

Pacific Flyway Data Book:
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2025. Pacific Flyway Data Book, 2025. U.S. Department of Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird Management, Pacific Flyway Office, Washington D.C.

USFWS Alaska Region:
Frost, C. J., D. E. Safine, J. B. Fischer, and E. E. Osnas. 2025. Alaska Goose, Swan, and Crane Population Indices. U.S. Department of Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, Alaska Region, Migratory Bird Management, Anchorage. https://doi.org/10.7944/mxfs-0y52

Abundance (Primary Data)

Data Table 1: Brant, Pacific (fall)

Original data source: Brant Fall Photographic Survey at Izembek Lagoon, AK; USFWS Alaska Region. Data maintained by USFWS Alaska Region.

Provided in the table below are abundance (Estimate) and standard error (SE) of brant in fall. Also provided are the number of replicate surveys (Reps) and abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 1. Pacific brant abundance in fall, 2017-2024.
Year Estimate SE Reps M3yr M3yr.SE
2017 377,029 96,602 3 NA NA
2018 227,450 37,501 3 NA NA
2019 272,468 57,500 2 292,316 68,422
2020 NA NA NA NA NA
2021 NA NA NA NA NA
2022 201,576 53,760 5 233,831 50,341
2023 245,074 69,703 3 239,706 60,704
2024 188,820 50,101 4 211,823 58,477

Figure 1: Pacific brant abundance in fall. Circles are annual estimates with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s population objective. The red dashed reference lines represent threshold values in the harvest strategy decision and the red reference line is the closure threshold.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 188,820 50,101 90,622 287,018
3-year indexa 211,823 58,477 97,208 326,439
LTA 264,719
Objective 322,000
% change from LTA -29
% change from obj -34
Mgmt index (n years) 3
a 2022, 2023, 2024

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Total brant in fall.

Management thresholds:
>293,000 Liberal
>243,000 Moderate
≥102,000 Restrictive
Closed

If the population declines to a level which prescribes a closed season, a restrictive hunting season may not resume until the 3-year average population index exceeds 112,000 brant.

Management prescription: Restrictive.

Note that the management prescription applies to the 2025 hunting season.

Regulatory alternatives:
Liberal
AK: 107 days and 4-bird bag, Sep 1-Jan 26
WA: 37 days and 2-bird bag, Saturday closest to Sep 24-Jan 31
OR: 37 days and 2-bird bag, Saturday closest to Sep 24-Dec 15
CA: 37 days and 2-bird bag, Saturday closest to Sep 24-Dec 15
Moderate
AK: 107 days and 2-bird bag, Sep 1-Jan 26
WA: 27 days and 2-bird bag, Saturday closest to Sep 24-Jan 31
OR: 27 days and 2-bird bag, Saturday closest to Sep 24-Dec 15
CA: 27 days and 2-bird bag, Saturday closest to Sep 24-Dec 15
Restrictive
AK: 51 days and 2-bird bag, Sep 1-Jan 26
WA: 16 days and 2-bird bag, Saturday closest to Sep 24-Jan 31
OR: 16 days and 2-bird bag, Saturday closest to Sep 24-Dec 15
CA: 16 days and 2-bird bag, Saturday closest to Sep 24-Dec 15
Closed

Data Table 2: Cackling Goose, Aleutian

Original data source: Pacific Flyway Cooperative Aleutian Cackling Goose Mark-resight Survey; California, Oregon, and USFWS Pacific Flyway Office. Data maintained by USFWS Pacific Flyway Office.

Provided in the table below are abundance (Estimate) and standard error (SE) of Aleutian cackling geese from direct counts (1975–1995) and from estimation using mark-resight methods (1996–2024; closed-robust design model). Also provided are the abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE). Mark-resight abundance estimates may change with each annual data update because they are based on model fit to the full time series of mark-resight data.

Table 2. Aleutian Cackling goose abundance in winter, 1975-2025.
Year Estimate SE M3yr M3yr.SE Method
1975 790 NA NA NA Direct count
1976 900 NA NA NA Direct count
1977 1,280 NA 990 NA Direct count
1978 1,500 NA 1,227 NA Direct count
1979 1,590 NA 1,457 NA Direct count
1980 1,740 NA 1,610 NA Direct count
1981 2,000 NA 1,777 NA Direct count
1982 2,700 NA 2,147 NA Direct count
1983 3,500 NA 2,733 NA Direct count
1984 3,800 NA 3,333 NA Direct count
1985 4,200 NA 3,833 NA Direct count
1986 4,300 NA 4,100 NA Direct count
1987 5,000 NA 4,500 NA Direct count
1988 5,400 NA 4,900 NA Direct count
1989 5,800 NA 5,400 NA Direct count
1990 6,300 NA 5,833 NA Direct count
1991 7,000 NA 6,367 NA Direct count
1992 7,680 NA 6,993 NA Direct count
1993 11,680 NA 8,787 NA Direct count
1994 15,700 NA 11,687 NA Direct count
1995 19,150 NA 15,510 NA Direct count
1996 15,451 558 16,767 NA Mark-resight
1997 20,394 763 18,332 NA Mark-resight
1998 32,453 1,071 22,766 825 Mark-resight
1999 35,551 3,122 29,466 1,956 Mark-resight
2000 34,278 1,347 34,094 2,058 Mark-resight
2001 NA NA NA NA NA
2002 NA NA NA NA NA
2003 72,856 2,711 47,561 2,511 Mark-resight
2004 110,732 4,299 72,622 3,036 Mark-resight
2005 87,155 4,558 90,248 3,941 Mark-resight
2006 100,262 4,532 99,383 4,465 Mark-resight
2007 107,634 7,585 98,350 5,740 Mark-resight
2008 112,621 6,782 106,839 6,431 Mark-resight
2009 84,489 11,913 101,581 9,045 Mark-resight
2010 106,871 8,467 101,327 9,302 Mark-resight
2011 101,650 7,009 97,670 9,358 Mark-resight
2012 132,735 10,071 113,752 8,607 Mark-resight
2013 162,465 14,689 132,283 11,050 Mark-resight
2014 150,452 13,084 148,551 12,759 Mark-resight
2015 209,572 18,273 174,163 15,501 Mark-resight
2016 154,381 13,140 171,468 15,031 Mark-resight
2017 164,036 17,991 175,996 16,636 Mark-resight
2018 169,665 14,566 162,694 15,368 Mark-resight
2019 193,086 25,627 175,596 19,938 Mark-resight
2020 122,042 12,053 161,598 18,386 Mark-resight
2021 173,830 16,117 162,986 18,813 Mark-resight
2022 232,462 28,354 176,111 20,075 Mark-resight
2023 186,439 33,124 197,577 26,838 Mark-resight
2024 160,855 22,858 193,252 28,423 Mark-resight
2025 204,576 38,341 183,957 32,092 Mark-resight

Figure 2: Aleutian cackling goose abundance in winter. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s minimum population objective.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 204,576 38,341 129,428 279,724
3-year indexa 183,957 32,092 121,056 246,857
LTA 69,717
Objective 60,000
% change from LTA 193
% change from obj 241
Mgmt index (n years) 1
a 2023, 2024, 2025

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Total Aleutian cackling geese in winter.

Management thresholds: N/A.

Management prescription: N/A.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

Data Table 3: Cackling Goose, Cackling (minima)

Original data source: Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Coastal Zone Survey and USFWS Pacific Flyway Office coordinated mark-resight program; USFWS Alaska Region, Alaska, British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California. Data maintained by USFWS Alaska Region and USFWS Pacific Flyway Office.

Provided in the table below are abundance and standard error (SE) of cackling (minima) cackling geese from mark-resight methods (Markresight) in fall, Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Coastal Zone Survey in spring (Total), and projected fall (Fall) abundance from the spring estimate. Spring abundance is projected to fall abundance via a fixed correction factor (estimate = 3.4225, SE = 0.1616) for visibility bias. Also provided are the projected fall abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 3. Cackling (minima) cackling goose abundance in spring and fall, 1985-2025.
Year Markresight Total Total.SE Fall Fall.SE M3yr M3yr.SE
1985 NA 17,923 1,272 61,341 5,230 NA NA
1986 NA 15,892 987 54,389 4,244 NA NA
1987 NA 17,251 1,129 59,041 4,766 58,257 4,764
1988 NA 23,310 1,328 79,777 5,906 64,402 5,020
1989 92,062 24,360 1,302 83,370 5,946 74,062 5,566
1990 94,237 30,491 1,808 104,355 7,913 89,167 6,654
1991 148,628 28,488 1,628 97,500 7,230 95,075 7,077
1992 149,542 43,054 2,152 147,351 10,132 116,402 8,516
1993 184,844 44,144 1,960 151,080 9,794 131,977 9,144
1994 198,558 61,794 2,383 211,488 12,891 169,973 11,027
1995 202,969 67,115 2,838 229,698 14,559 197,422 12,571
1996 193,531 71,906 3,606 246,094 16,953 229,093 14,895
1997 256,715 83,797 3,257 286,793 17,538 254,195 16,401
1998 215,644 60,633 2,954 207,515 14,080 246,801 16,261
1999 306,065 67,081 3,216 229,582 15,449 241,297 15,753
2000 273,108 70,341 2,997 240,739 15,310 225,945 14,959
2001 206,249 73,931 3,484 253,026 16,882 241,115 15,896
2002 177,794 47,306 2,024 161,904 10,317 218,556 14,443
2003 251,594 68,492 3,206 234,412 15,588 216,447 14,542
2004 NA 50,578 2,378 173,103 11,535 189,806 12,682
2005 NA 63,358 2,882 216,839 14,219 208,118 13,883
2006 NA 69,338 2,970 237,305 15,129 209,082 13,713
2007 NA 73,984 3,014 253,206 15,790 235,783 15,059
2008 NA 83,645 3,700 286,271 18,522 258,928 16,546
2009 NA 66,414 2,511 227,301 13,748 255,593 16,139
2010 NA 81,013 4,566 277,264 20,391 263,612 17,775
2011 242,467 52,965 1,920 181,272 10,789 228,612 15,505
2012 272,493 59,534 2,824 203,751 13,638 220,762 15,473
2013 259,323 91,708 5,056 313,867 22,788 232,963 16,550
2014 NA 81,963 4,364 280,515 19,967 266,045 19,183
2015 NA 104,290 5,507 356,928 25,288 317,104 22,785
2016 NA 94,028 3,656 321,805 19,682 319,750 21,799
2017 NA 82,113 3,296 281,029 17,415 319,921 21,057
2018 NA 58,083 2,550 198,788 12,817 267,207 16,882
2019 NA 58,606 2,644 200,576 13,099 226,798 14,596
2020 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2021 NA 58,049 2,811 198,671 13,438 199,345 13,120
2022 NA 67,146 3,328 229,805 15,735 209,684 14,139
2023 NA 44,961 2,272 153,877 10,644 194,118 13,434
2024 NA 36,258 1,677 124,093 8,202 169,258 11,946
2025 NA 36,339 1,712 124,369 8,297 134,113 9,118

Figure 3: Cackling (minima) cackling goose abundance in fall. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s population objective. The red dashed reference lines represent threshold values in the harvest strategy decision and the red reference line is the closure threshold.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 124,369 8,297 108,107 140,631
3-year indexa 134,113 9,118 116,242 151,984
LTA 201,429
Objective 250,000
% change from LTA -38
% change from obj -46
Mgmt index (n years) 3
a 2023, 2024, 2025

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Minima cackling geese projected in fall.

Management thresholds:
>275,000 Liberal
≥225,000 Standard
≥80,000 Restrictive
Closed

Management prescription: Restrictive.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

After a closure and when the population increases above a 3-year average index of 110,000, limited hunting may be considered.

Data Table 4: Cackling Goose, Taverner’s

Original data source: Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Coastal Zone Survey, Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey strata in Alaska (i.e., strata 9–11), and Arctic Coastal Plain Survey; USFWS Alaska Region. Data maintained by USFWS Alaska Region.

Provided in the table below are abundance and standard error (SE) of Taverner’s cackling geese in spring by survey and area including Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Coastal Zone Survey (YKDCZ), Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS; strata 9–11), and Arctic Coastal Plain Survey (ACP). Also provided are the total (Total) abundance and total abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 4. Taverner's cackling goose abundance in spring, 1985-2025.
Year YKDCZ YKDCZ.SE WPBHS9 WPBHS9.SE WPBHS10 WPBHS10.SE WPBHS11 WPBHS11.SE ACP ACP.SE Total Total.SE M3yr M3yr.SE
1985 3,798 1,789 16,035 2,822 7,700 5,698 15,047 4,825 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1986 2,288 586 17,774 1,693 8,112 7,233 9,474 3,018 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1987 4,514 957 22,218 7,319 5,225 2,543 4,570 1,412 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1988 8,551 1,633 14,973 2,036 4,812 810 17,945 4,360 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1989 8,567 1,387 23,280 2,927 3,850 2,058 11,146 2,059 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1990 7,812 1,862 25,405 2,201 3,575 1,367 9,697 2,145 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1991 7,070 1,203 26,951 4,544 5,912 1,784 30,762 22,758 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1992 7,714 1,592 23,763 2,877 11,550 5,365 15,381 6,095 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1993 8,461 2,096 19,126 3,378 5,362 2,333 9,920 1,400 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1994 7,003 1,406 24,922 3,687 5,225 2,367 13,486 4,814 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1995 6,488 1,713 19,996 2,697 3,300 2,664 8,805 5,081 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1996 6,598 1,293 25,792 5,057 6,600 4,718 14,155 6,249 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1997 6,351 1,052 20,092 2,270 6,050 1,881 15,827 5,227 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1998 10,350 1,277 21,155 3,859 5,638 1,474 12,929 2,847 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1999 12,920 2,204 17,678 2,925 3,988 2,524 13,709 4,336 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2000 9,709 2,597 12,600 2,042 3,850 778 13,152 7,027 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2001 7,706 1,529 14,669 1,980 4,125 2,447 20,954 13,369 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2002 5,982 1,100 13,353 2,584 6,738 2,987 9,362 742 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2003 9,075 1,869 17,114 2,974 6,600 1,420 10,811 3,017 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2004 7,825 2,928 12,882 1,840 5,225 2,318 6,910 2,328 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2005 7,248 2,272 14,199 1,994 3,162 1,354 10,477 4,372 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2006 9,510 1,983 15,515 2,220 4,950 651 8,136 1,833 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2007 5,848 1,691 10,155 1,700 5,225 493 7,356 2,472 27,175 5,263 55,760 6,309 NA NA
2008 10,572 2,037 21,627 8,864 8,388 3,441 6,019 1,631 5,013 714 51,619 9,886 NA NA
2009 7,697 1,698 9,967 1,783 4,950 2,178 6,465 1,099 19,847 2,989 48,926 4,577 52,102 7,268
2010 9,135 2,112 18,148 1,145 5,500 2,069 7,802 2,090 16,345 3,052 56,930 4,872 52,492 6,890
2011 5,911 1,210 11,942 1,738 2,750 986 5,573 1,090 9,699 1,679 35,875 3,076 47,244 4,249
2012 9,069 3,598 9,967 2,128 4,675 1,042 7,914 1,143 14,670 2,788 46,295 5,258 46,367 4,503
2013 9,345 2,517 5,360 1,738 3,025 369 5,684 1,683 3,714 660 27,128 3,572 36,433 4,077
2014 13,148 4,921 6,488 2,923 8,662 3,655 6,910 1,094 7,312 1,153 42,521 6,975 38,648 5,448
2015 19,964 5,704 6,137 1,854 2,727 289 4,681 2,801 8,393 1,138 41,903 6,723 37,184 5,961
2016 8,042 2,095 12,224 3,506 6,875 1,605 6,688 2,729 16,537 2,325 50,366 5,667 44,930 6,480
2017 9,302 3,715 7,242 1,332 11,412 4,717 3,009 636 15,476 3,527 46,442 7,118 46,237 6,532
2018 15,633 4,949 6,958 2,966 7,700 1,506 4,458 1,851 9,865 1,584 44,615 6,442 47,141 6,436
2019 11,231 3,331 9,497 3,294 5,775 1,077 3,009 854 13,214 1,564 42,726 5,127 44,594 6,283
2020 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2021 21,782 8,676 5,642 1,236 5,133 2,567 3,790 1,379 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2022 11,695 4,586 9,027 3,532 2,750 986 4,012 1,216 18,746 2,671 46,230 6,565 44,524 6,079
2023 8,191 1,937 2,633 1,250 4,950 1,678 4,681 3,021 9,240 1,181 29,695 4,318 39,551 5,417
2024 6,596 2,156 5,266 1,125 6,600 3,082 4,377 1,815 15,453 2,264 38,293 4,882 38,073 5,341
2025 5,756 1,781 7,146 3,919 3,300 952 2,229 759 15,184 2,303 33,616 5,031 33,868 4,754

Figure 4: Taverner’s cackling goose abundance in spring. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 33,616 5,031 23,754 43,477
3-year indexa 33,868 4,754 24,551 43,185
LTA 44,083
Objective
% change from LTA -24
% change from obj
Mgmt index (n years) 1
a 2023, 2024, 2025

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Total Taverner’s cackling geese in spring.

Management thresholds: N/A.

Management prescription: N/A.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

Data Table 5: Canada Goose, Dusky

Original data source: Copper River Delta Survey and Middleton Island Survey; USFWS Alaska Region and Alaska Department of Fish and Game. Data maintained by USFWS Alaska Region, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, and USFWS Pacific Flyway Office.

Provided in the table below are abundance and standard error (SE) of dusky Canada geese in spring by social group including breeding, total, and flocked birds (Breeding, Total, Flocked). Also provided are the total birds on Middleton Island (Middleton). Breeding birds are expanded by a fixed correction factor (estimate = 3.3416, SE = 0.3244) for visibility bias, which are then added to the flocked and Middleton Island estimates to derive adjusted total (Adjtotal) dusky Canada geese. Additionally provided are the total abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 5. Dusky Canada goose abundance in spring, 1986-2025.
Year Breeding Breeding.SE Total Total.SE Flocked Flocked.SE Middleton Middleton.SE Adjtotal Adjtotal.SE M3yr M3yr.SE
1986 4,735 676 5,416 646 680 573 80 0 16,584 2,799 NA NA
1987 4,048 372 5,205 451 1,156 297 84 0 14,769 1,836 NA NA
1988 4,281 217 4,935 257 654 108 90 0 15,051 1,572 15,468 2,135
1989 4,389 249 6,582 464 2,194 312 75 0 16,934 1,680 15,584 1,699
1990 4,220 367 5,209 526 989 291 93 0 15,183 1,865 15,723 1,710
1991 2,739 266 3,620 322 881 168 249 0 10,283 1,270 14,133 1,624
1992 4,156 219 6,378 634 2,223 564 473 0 16,582 1,637 14,016 1,609
1993 3,715 195 6,004 370 2,289 357 473 0 15,176 1,416 14,014 1,449
1994 3,852 188 5,454 331 1,602 239 473 0 14,946 1,420 15,568 1,494
1995 3,364 127 3,709 170 346 67 473 0 12,059 1,174 14,060 1,342
1996 2,910 104 3,514 157 604 85 1,497 0 11,824 1,010 12,943 1,213
1997 3,386 99 4,126 152 740 101 1,168 0 13,222 1,152 12,368 1,114
1998 3,691 166 5,066 284 1,375 199 1,168 0 14,877 1,336 13,308 1,174
1999 2,649 118 3,091 152 442 72 1,168 0 10,462 949 12,854 1,156
2000 2,523 107 3,016 126 493 67 1,309 0 10,233 896 11,857 1,078
2001 2,859 119 3,249 137 390 63 1,309 0 11,252 1,012 10,649 954
2002 3,152 126 4,058 204 906 137 1,416 0 12,856 1,115 11,447 1,012
2003 2,321 92 3,254 167 932 110 1,416 0 10,105 822 11,404 991
2004 2,822 128 3,243 158 420 69 1,499 0 11,350 1,013 11,437 991
2005 4,199 276 5,582 444 1,382 251 1,499 0 16,914 1,666 12,790 1,222
2006 2,771 135 3,198 155 427 87 1,453 0 11,139 1,010 13,134 1,268
2007 2,557 117 2,991 141 434 53 1,453 0 10,431 919 12,828 1,244
2008 2,333 104 2,617 115 285 43 1,317 0 9,396 834 10,322 924
2009 1,555 73 1,819 121 264 82 1,317 0 6,778 566 8,869 788
2010 2,316 95 2,703 134 387 67 1,249 0 9,374 818 8,516 750
2011 2,846 139 3,684 242 838 140 1,249 0 11,597 1,044 9,250 833
2012 3,338 150 3,913 203 575 81 1,193 0 12,922 1,197 11,298 1,031
2013 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2014 3,522 197 4,551 258 1,029 147 1,780 0 14,579 1,329 13,032 1,195
2015 4,230 220 6,096 429 1,866 334 2,112 223 18,113 1,610 15,204 1,389
2016 3,516 236 4,087 282 570 111 3,536 449 15,856 1,464 16,182 1,472
2017 3,014 186 3,579 234 565 164 2,288 308 12,924 1,211 15,631 1,438
2018 2,299 118 3,234 225 935 178 3,414 510 12,030 1,003 13,603 1,240
2019 3,304 253 6,905 2,028 3,601 1,999 3,414 510 18,055 2,476 14,336 1,693
2020 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2021 2,902 152 3,353 191 451 71 1,913 365 12,060 1,134 14,049 1,675
2022 2,870 149 3,712 234 842 140 1,913 365 12,346 1,127 14,154 1,701
2023 2,167 142 2,974 251 807 182 1,570 116 9,618 876 11,341 1,052
2024 1,764 101 2,448 195 684 126 1,570 116 8,150 688 10,038 915
2025 2,664 161 3,985 270 1,321 207 1,574 128 11,797 1,048 9,855 883

Figure 5: Dusky Canada goose abundance in spring. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s population objective. The red dashed reference line is a restriction threshold in the harvest strategy decision and the red reference line is the severe restriction threshold.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 11,797 1,048 9,743 13,852
3-year indexa 9,855 883 8,125 11,585
LTA 12,866
Objective 20,000
% change from LTA -8
% change from obj -51
Mgmt index (n years) 3
a 2023, 2024, 2025

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Total dusky Canada geese in spring.

Management thresholds:
≥7,500 Standard
≥5,000 Restrictive
Very Restrictive

Management prescription: Standard.

Note that the Very Restrictive alternative is prescribed if the dusky Canada goose index is less than 5,000 geese in any year.

Regulatory alternatives:
Oregon and Washington Permit Zones
Standard
Closed season for dusky Canada geese
Restrictive
Additional restrictions, including the closure of all Canada goose hunting, will be considered
Very Restrictive
Oregon and Washington will implement regulations to ensure the hunting of Canada and cackling geese occurs only on or over agricultural fields or pastures with crops or forage that may be damaged by geese. Standard seasons for harvest of Canada and cackling geese other than dusky Canada geese in the permit zones may resume when the dusky Canada goose population (based on the 3-year average index) exceeds 10,000 geese

Alaska (GMU 6A-6D)
Standard
4 dusky Canada geese daily bag limit
Restrictive
2 dusky Canada geese daily bag limit
Very Restrictive
Closed season for dusky Canada geese, open to other Canada geese by permit only

Data Table 6: Canada Goose, Lesser

Original data source: Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) strata in Alaska (i.e., strata 1–4, 12); USFWS Alaska Region. Data maintained by USFWS Alaska Region.

Provided in the table below are abundance and standard error (SE) of lesser Canada geese in spring by area (WBPHS strata 1-4, 12) and in total. Also provided are the total abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 6. Lesser Canada goose abundance in spring, 1964-2025.
Year WPBHS1 WPBHS1.SE WPBHS2 WPBHS2.SE WPBHS3 WPBHS3.SE WPBHS4 WPBHS4.SE WPBHS12 WPBHS12.SE Total Total.SE M3yr M3yr.SE
1964 110 120 150 142 0 0 1,929 1,655 125 107 2,314 1,669 NA NA
1965 1,100 682 0 0 352 364 1,234 840 0 0 2,687 1,142 NA NA
1966 0 0 0 0 141 136 284 265 0 0 425 298 1,808 1,180
1967 3,740 3,038 450 426 2,159 1,135 7,020 3,168 109 103 13,478 4,555 5,530 2,716
1968 385 422 0 0 775 363 8,370 4,826 438 284 9,968 4,866 7,957 3,852
1969 3,410 3,735 0 0 705 345 3,645 1,593 0 0 7,760 4,076 10,402 4,510
1970 2,805 2,748 0 0 705 393 8,505 4,209 657 620 12,671 5,080 10,133 4,694
1971 220 241 0 0 2,466 1,003 5,400 3,166 109 103 8,195 3,331 9,542 4,224
1972 0 0 0 0 705 393 2,700 1,180 0 0 3,405 1,243 8,090 3,580
1973 220 216 0 0 1,832 500 4,050 1,097 274 258 6,375 1,252 5,992 2,176
1974 330 162 150 142 14,655 14,539 5,940 1,642 109 103 21,184 14,633 10,321 8,510
1975 0 0 0 0 986 543 4,590 995 1,368 1,291 6,944 1,718 11,501 8,537
1976 0 0 0 0 1,127 437 1,755 625 109 103 2,992 769 10,373 8,518
1977 770 488 150 142 1,057 394 1,890 815 821 775 4,688 1,295 4,875 1,319
1978 0 0 0 0 1,832 653 4,995 2,124 109 103 6,936 2,224 4,872 1,551
1979 110 108 0 0 1,620 678 4,590 1,693 219 82 6,539 1,829 6,054 1,823
1980 0 0 450 464 1,691 539 10,530 3,173 219 207 12,890 3,258 8,788 2,511
1981 330 235 375 255 2,677 1,001 13,770 3,564 1,259 1,017 18,411 3,855 12,613 3,099
1982 1,210 1,056 150 155 1,550 666 9,990 4,167 3,119 2,685 16,019 5,114 15,773 4,149
1983 220 216 0 0 1,550 883 1,620 548 0 0 3,390 1,062 12,607 3,748
1984 990 970 2,325 2,199 1,127 371 9,180 3,538 219 207 13,841 4,298 11,083 3,905
1985 385 377 0 0 705 432 7,830 3,152 657 620 9,576 3,263 8,936 3,175
1986 1,430 1,401 150 142 775 671 4,320 2,114 0 0 6,675 2,627 10,031 3,465
1987 220 216 150 142 705 253 2,970 1,070 547 516 4,592 1,242 6,948 2,523
1988 440 332 525 496 986 400 3,780 750 1,040 981 6,771 1,429 6,013 1,870
1989 715 701 0 0 423 221 5,940 2,012 0 0 7,078 2,142 6,147 1,651
1990 770 754 750 774 2,748 1,721 7,290 3,229 109 103 11,667 3,817 8,505 2,658
1991 495 485 2,175 1,726 1,409 568 0 0 219 125 4,298 1,885 7,681 2,751
1992 4,290 4,203 0 0 845 503 2,565 1,137 1,423 1,196 9,123 4,544 8,363 3,595
1993 495 485 150 155 282 200 4,860 1,379 109 103 5,896 1,487 6,439 2,967
1994 1,925 1,886 150 142 2,889 2,447 10,530 3,761 1,204 698 16,698 4,919 10,572 3,960
1995 715 592 675 541 705 345 7,020 2,669 438 342 9,552 2,829 10,715 3,387
1996 1,100 1,078 300 195 1,339 681 4,725 2,116 219 207 7,683 2,487 11,311 3,577
1997 715 575 300 195 564 266 2,970 783 438 251 4,986 1,056 7,407 2,258
1998 880 862 0 0 141 141 4,590 1,636 109 103 5,720 1,857 6,130 1,893
1999 110 108 2,175 1,919 141 145 2,295 953 930 380 5,651 2,183 5,453 1,764
2000 3,960 3,761 375 255 493 262 3,240 1,791 1,204 811 9,272 4,259 6,881 2,964
2001 110 93 0 0 1,033 452 4,590 1,822 328 155 6,062 1,886 6,995 2,970
2002 990 847 600 320 1,127 472 1,890 780 328 226 4,936 1,305 6,756 2,793
2003 110 108 150 142 352 254 5,265 2,150 383 216 6,260 2,183 5,753 1,828
2004 440 431 600 619 916 336 3,915 1,681 438 95 6,309 1,876 5,835 1,824
2005 314 328 0 0 282 187 3,645 1,356 602 245 4,843 1,428 5,804 1,855
2006 330 132 0 0 634 388 2,700 772 547 41 4,211 875 5,121 1,452
2007 0 0 375 387 986 692 2,970 1,457 5,199 3,660 9,530 4,018 6,195 2,513
2008 1,650 1,617 0 0 423 221 7,200 3,400 985 665 10,258 3,830 8,000 3,244
2009 605 593 0 0 564 329 4,455 1,941 766 287 6,390 2,076 8,726 3,422
2010 0 0 450 285 581 239 4,860 1,730 930 878 6,822 1,975 7,823 2,761
2011 0 0 150 142 423 221 1,080 695 1,915 1,808 3,568 1,954 5,593 2,002
2012 1,344 954 0 0 1,127 876 1,350 875 0 0 3,822 1,563 4,737 1,841
2013 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2014 122 131 0 0 436 323 540 380 1,751 657 2,849 835 3,413 1,523
2015 183 173 0 0 141 136 7,020 5,629 1,259 300 8,603 5,641 5,091 3,414
2016 0 0 600 567 986 606 2,160 465 657 452 4,403 1,054 5,285 3,348
2017 244 230 0 0 1,350 665 1,080 718 1,368 1,291 4,043 1,636 5,683 3,445
2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,080 541 930 422 2,010 686 3,485 1,191
2019 122 115 0 0 564 329 11,340 6,988 1,040 811 13,066 7,043 6,373 4,194
2020 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2021 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2022 122 115 0 0 282 291 4,590 4,301 0 0 4,994 4,313 6,690 4,785
2023 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2024 122 115 0 0 0 0 2,571 1,645 0 0 2,694 1,649 6,918 4,862
2025 367 346 0 0 291 291 9,720 4,130 547 516 10,925 4,187 6,204 3,598

Figure 6: Lesser Canada goose abundance in spring. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 10,925 4,187 2,719 19,130
3-year indexa 6,204 3,598 -849 13,257
LTA 7,404
Objective
% change from LTA 48
% change from obj
Mgmt index (n years) 1
a 2022, 2024, 2025

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Total lesser Canada geese in spring.

Management thresholds: N/A.

Management prescription: N/A.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

Data Table 7: Canada Goose, Western PFP

Original data source: Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) strata in Alberta and Montana (i.e., strata 76, and portions of strata 26–29 and 41–42); and State/Provincial Waterfowl Breeding Population Surveys in British Columbia, eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, and northeast California; USFWS Headquarters, British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California. Data maintained by USFWS Headquarters, Canadian Wildlife Service Pacific and Yukon Region, Washington, Oregon, California, and USFWS Pacific Flyway Office.

Provided in the table below are abundance and standard error(SE) of Pacific Flyway Population western Canada geese by survey (WBPHS in Alberta and Montana, and state/provincial surveys in British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California) and in total for the State survey areas (State) and for all surveys combined (Total) in spring. Also provided are the total abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 7. Pacific Flyway Population western Canada goose abundance in spring, 2010-2025.
Year WBPHS WBPHS.SE BC BC.SE WA WA.SE OR OR.SE CA CA.SE State State.SE Total Total.SE M3yr M3yr.SE
2010 162,421 23,611 33,296 4,154 18,696 4,353 31,642 4,416 33,155 8,178 116,789 33,985 279,210 41,382 NA NA
2011 128,327 17,146 33,566 4,507 31,176 7,258 38,062 5,349 36,476 14,552 139,280 37,843 267,607 41,546 NA NA
2012 184,960 22,519 35,787 4,834 29,308 5,925 40,920 5,699 42,181 14,288 148,197 43,246 333,157 48,758 293,325 44,030
2013 200,545 20,814 34,370 4,812 26,577 7,789 37,107 4,109 68,248 20,484 166,302 68,982 366,848 72,054 322,537 55,663
2014 146,746 15,934 34,120 3,863 38,832 8,779 39,671 5,068 31,209 14,497 143,831 33,040 290,577 36,682 330,194 54,512
2015 234,091 28,564 35,285 3,359 33,347 8,121 43,167 6,690 44,322 16,368 156,121 45,678 390,212 53,873 349,212 56,094
2016 319,990 34,525 39,980 5,200 24,678 6,375 40,968 6,851 44,323 11,234 149,949 45,597 469,939 57,193 383,576 50,063
2017 240,038 26,345 39,359 5,106 27,461 5,331 40,801 7,648 55,224 20,731 162,846 56,238 402,884 62,103 421,012 57,822
2018 316,119 38,653 34,646 3,532 36,662 8,491 49,646 9,647 52,121 14,984 173,076 53,798 489,195 66,244 454,006 61,957
2019 237,515 28,542 31,737 3,945 43,749 9,974 41,679 7,379 48,588 14,417 165,752 50,302 403,267 57,835 431,782 62,156
2020 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2021 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2022 328,298 36,271 26,213 3,314 31,808 8,827 37,622 4,684 46,359 10,039 142,001 47,540 470,299 59,796 454,254 61,397
2023 259,223 27,356 20,698 2,212 24,570 6,360 22,189 3,668 60,353 14,900 127,809 60,838 387,032 66,705 420,200 61,563
2024 214,602 33,290 20,795 2,084 22,756 4,342 27,875 4,065 34,242 10,048 105,668 34,817 320,270 48,171 392,534 58,724
2025 276,178 31,282 28,887 2,694 28,746 7,158 29,505 4,520 62,034 17,442 149,172 62,667 425,350 70,041 377,551 62,385

Figure 7: Pacific Flyway Population western Canada goose abundance in spring. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Councils’ minimum population objective.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 425,350 70,041 288,070 562,629
3-year indexa 377,551 62,385 255,276 499,825
LTA 374,654
Objective 200,000
% change from LTA 14
% change from obj 89
Mgmt index (n years) 3
a 2023, 2024, 2025

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Total western Canada geese in spring.

Management thresholds: N/A.

Management prescription: N/A.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

Data Table 8: Emperor Goose

Original data source: Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Coastal Zone Survey; USFWS Alaska Region. Data maintained by USFWS Alaska Region.

Provided in the table below are abundance and standard error (SE) of emperor geese in spring. Also provided are the abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 8. Emperor goose abundance in spring, 1985-2025.
Year Total Total.SE M3yr M3yr.SE
1985 19,253 1,392 NA NA
1986 11,580 865 NA NA
1987 10,625 1,003 13,819 1,109
1988 13,066 1,022 11,757 966
1989 14,203 1,029 12,631 1,018
1990 14,645 1,083 13,971 1,045
1991 12,464 1,089 13,771 1,067
1992 12,927 818 13,345 1,005
1993 15,522 1,105 13,638 1,013
1994 16,842 934 15,097 959
1995 17,729 1,105 16,698 1,051
1996 23,885 2,431 19,485 1,633
1997 22,446 1,453 21,353 1,755
1998 20,047 980 22,126 1,731
1999 19,651 1,337 20,715 1,273
2000 16,632 877 18,777 1,083
2001 26,338 1,384 20,874 1,221
2002 18,726 1,132 20,565 1,150
2003 20,588 1,548 21,884 1,365
2004 20,986 1,068 20,100 1,267
2005 20,550 1,291 20,708 1,317
2006 24,997 1,534 22,178 1,311
2007 25,126 1,648 23,558 1,498
2008 21,811 1,095 23,978 1,445
2009 20,287 1,175 22,408 1,329
2010 19,760 1,072 20,619 1,115
2011 20,659 1,184 20,235 1,145
2012 20,159 1,647 20,193 1,325
2013 29,390 2,171 23,403 1,715
2014 30,685 2,763 26,745 2,241
2015 27,767 1,694 29,281 2,252
2016 33,277 2,384 30,576 2,323
2017 29,145 1,684 30,063 1,949
2018 29,509 1,680 30,644 1,945
2019 25,790 1,472 28,148 1,615
2020 NA NA NA NA
2021 23,297 1,200 26,199 1,464
2022 27,977 1,488 25,688 1,393
2023 23,357 1,480 24,877 1,396
2024 17,223 1,040 22,852 1,352
2025 22,180 1,168 20,920 1,243

Figure 8: Emperor goose abundance in spring. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s population objective. The red dashed reference line is the threshold where restrictions are considered and the red reference line is the closure threshold.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 22,180 1,168 19,890 24,470
3-year indexa 20,920 1,243 18,483 23,357
LTA 20,998
Objective 34,000
% change from LTA 6
% change from obj -35
Mgmt index (n years) 1
a 2023, 2024, 2025

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Total emperor geese in spring.

Management thresholds:
≥28,000 Standard
≥23,000 Consider Restrictions
Closed

Management prescription: Closed.

Regulatory alternatives:
Standard
Quota of 1,000 birds
Consider Restrictions
Restrictions considered including quota of 500 birds
Closed

Data Table 9: Ross’s Goose

Original data source: Lincoln (harvest/harvest rate) estimates of adult abundance in summer; USFWS Headquarters. Data maintained by USFWS Headquarters.

Provided in the table below are adult abundance (Estimate) and standard error (SE) of Ross’s geese in summer. Also provided are the abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 9. Ross's goose abundance in summer, 1989-2023.
Year Estimate SE M3yr M3yr.SE
1989 122,967 75,859 122,967 76,796
1990 260,543 161,660 191,755 88,982
1991 184,576 114,119 189,362 70,645
1992 91,489 56,582 178,869 68,008
1993 NA NA 138,032 63,634
1994 111,532 44,589 101,510 36,425
1995 436,216 271,326 273,874 136,767
1996 NA NA 273,874 136,767
1997 391,660 98,868 413,938 143,224
1998 740,682 149,628 566,171 89,541
1999 708,306 138,152 613,549 75,358
2000 1,167,070 246,388 872,019 107,950
2001 1,642,862 404,123 1,172,746 165,028
2002 1,818,419 288,162 1,542,784 187,072
2003 1,133,114 189,555 1,531,465 178,101
2004 1,658,615 235,288 1,536,716 140,171
2005 1,385,010 171,256 1,392,246 118,050
2006 1,403,605 156,848 1,482,410 112,526
2007 2,586,016 333,733 1,791,543 136,295
2008 3,072,466 400,035 2,354,029 181,439
2009 1,946,855 317,704 2,535,112 203,712
2010 3,097,982 428,789 2,705,768 223,653
2011 2,653,779 351,631 2,566,206 216,019
2012 3,090,652 421,429 2,947,471 232,573
2013 3,735,736 486,685 3,160,056 241,654
2014 5,891,908 813,300 4,239,432 346,925
2015 1,907,986 223,189 3,845,210 326,445
2016 3,073,936 346,549 3,624,610 303,531
2017 2,638,395 389,028 2,540,106 187,891
2018 2,926,479 539,289 2,879,603 249,721
2019 2,537,495 339,399 2,700,790 248,084
2020 NA NA 2,731,987 320,775
2021 NA NA 2,537,495 339,234
2022 1,076,130 167,045 1,076,130 165,723
2023 3,409,133 474,160 2,242,631 251,201

Figure 9: Ross’s goose abundance in summer. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s minimum population objective.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 3,409,133 474,160 2,479,779 4,338,487
3-year indexa 2,242,631 251,201 1,750,278 2,734,985
LTA 1,783,083
Objective 150,000
% change from LTA 91
% change from obj 2,173
Mgmt index (n years) 1
a 2021, 2022, 2023

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Adult Ross’s geese in summer.

Management thresholds:
≥100,000 Standard
Restrictive

Management prescription: Standard.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

Data Table 10: Snow Goose, WIP and WAP

Original data source: Pacific Flyway Cooperative Light Goose Winter Survey; Washington, Oregon, and California. Data maintained by Washington, Oregon, and California.

Provided in the table below are abundance of Wrangel Island Population and Western Arctic Population lesser snow geese by area including Skagit-Fraser River Deltas in Washington and British Columbia (Sk-Fr), Oregon-Washington Columbia River east (ColR.E), Oregon-Washington Columbia River west (ColR.W), balance of Oregon (OR), California (CA), and in total (Total). In California, the percentage of the white geese count that are Ross’s geese (CARoss%) are recorded periodically and is modeled to estimate the percentage of Ross’s geese smoothed over all years (CARossAdj%). The number of lesser snow geese in California (CASnow) is derived by subtracting the percentage of the white goose count that are Ross’s geese and is the metric used to monitor abundance of Western Arctic Population lesser snow geese in winter. In the Skagit-Fraser area, the percentage of the lesser snow goose count that are juveniles (Juv%) is reported and used to derive the number of adult snow geese in the Skagit-Fraser count (AdultSk). Adult snow geese is the metric used to monitor abundance of Wrangel Island Population lesser snow geese in winter. Also provided are moving 3-year averages for snow geese in California (M3yrCA) and adult snow geese in the Skagit-Fraser (M3yrSk). So long as there are counts in Sakgit-Fraser and California, the total winter count is interpreted as the minimum known population size with no variance.

Table 10. Wrangel Island Population and Western Arctic Population lesser snow geese in winter, 1979-2024.
Year Sk-Fr ColR.E ColR.W OR CA Total CARoss% CARossAdj% CASnow M3yrCA Juv% AdultSk M3yrSk
1979 35,600 NA NA NA 492,500 528,100 NA 36.3 313,674 NA NA NA NA
1980 22,400 NA NA NA 181,800 204,200 NA 37.0 114,500 NA 19.0 18,144 NA
1981 48,600 NA NA NA 711,300 759,900 NA 37.7 443,388 290,521 NA NA NA
1982 26,100 NA NA NA 328,000 354,100 NA 38.2 202,542 253,477 5.8 24,586 NA
1983 24,500 NA NA NA 523,100 547,600 NA 38.8 320,287 322,072 0.0 24,500 22,410
1984 26,600 NA NA NA 439,700 466,300 NA 39.2 267,201 263,344 12.6 23,248 24,112
1985 46,200 NA NA NA 503,600 549,800 NA 39.6 304,032 297,173 24.0 35,112 27,620
1986 39,900 NA NA NA 481,800 521,700 NA 40.0 289,256 286,830 25.0 29,925 29,428
1987 47,700 NA NA NA 477,600 525,300 NA 40.2 285,432 292,906 40.0 28,620 31,219
1988 43,800 NA NA NA 397,200 441,000 NA 40.4 236,545 270,411 NA NA NA
1989 32,200 NA NA NA 431,700 463,900 41.9 40.6 256,451 259,476 NA NA NA
1990 31,700 NA NA NA 676,800 708,500 43.6 40.7 401,471 298,156 NA NA NA
1991 39,100 NA NA NA 651,000 690,100 NA 40.7 386,012 347,978 28.6 27,917 28,821
1992 34,300 NA NA NA 605,000 639,300 36.9 40.7 358,970 382,151 NA NA NA
1993 49,100 NA NA NA 520,100 569,200 NA 40.6 309,120 351,367 NA NA NA
1994 42,600 NA NA NA 435,600 478,200 NA 40.4 259,608 309,232 8.5 38,979 31,839
1995 37,000 NA NA NA 464,400 501,400 NA 40.2 277,819 282,182 5.4 35,002 33,966
1996 45,800 NA NA NA 320,500 366,300 NA 39.9 192,656 243,361 NA NA NA
1997 47,000 NA NA NA 369,400 416,400 NA 39.5 223,343 231,272 16.2 39,386 37,789
1998 47,100 NA NA NA 307,200 354,300 NA 39.1 187,002 201,000 13.2 40,883 38,424
1999 28,600 NA NA NA 550,400 579,000 NA 38.7 337,658 249,334 15.6 24,138 34,802
2000 56,300 NA NA NA 600,500 656,800 38.4 38.1 371,617 298,759 20.3 44,871 36,631
2001 52,000 NA NA NA 396,200 448,200 NA 37.5 247,560 318,945 21.1 41,028 36,679
2002 73,100 NA NA NA 523,700 596,800 NA 36.9 330,690 316,622 26.7 53,582 46,494
2003 66,800 NA NA NA 521,000 587,800 NA 36.1 332,756 303,669 12.8 58,250 50,953
2004 68,141 NA NA NA 682,128 750,269 NA 35.3 441,027 368,158 15.3 57,715 56,516
2005 80,040 NA NA NA 630,686 710,726 34.8 34.5 413,117 395,633 32.7 53,867 56,611
2006 83,148 NA NA NA 719,810 802,958 NA 33.6 478,050 444,065 21.2 65,521 59,034
2007 94,856 NA NA NA 978,622 1,073,478 NA 32.6 659,455 516,874 21.8 74,177 64,522
2008 NA NA NA NA 900,403 NA 31.3 31.6 616,066 584,524 NA NA NA
2009 78,989 NA NA NA 827,055 906,044 NA 30.5 574,956 616,826 40.0 47,393 62,364
2010 63,641 NA NA NA 800,156 863,797 NA 29.3 565,535 585,519 4.4 60,841 60,804
2011 69,964 NA NA NA 1,027,887 1,097,851 25.6 28.1 739,051 626,514 20.6 55,551 54,595
2012 67,198 NA NA NA 824,432 891,630 NA 26.8 603,354 635,980 18.6 54,699 57,030
2013 69,685 NA NA NA 1,275,890 1,345,575 NA 25.5 950,929 764,445 23.8 53,100 54,450
2014 66,501 NA NA NA 1,141,579 1,208,080 31.9 24.1 866,908 807,064 8.5 60,835 56,211
2015 81,195 7,930 11,892 44 NA NA NA 22.6 NA NA 26.8 59,435 57,790
2016 103,617 15,447 14,215 16 1,773,493 1,906,788 NA 21.1 1,400,062 1,072,633 33.4 69,009 63,093
2017 86,553 33,274 18,080 0 1,217,295 1,355,202 11.5 19.5 980,401 1,082,457 15.4 73,224 67,222
2018 109,993 52,841 18,241 26 1,232,663 1,413,764 NA 17.8 1,013,214 1,131,226 20.6 87,334 76,522
2019 NA 160,825 24,394 30 1,414,392 NA NA 16.1 1,186,920 1,060,178 NA NA NA
2020 133,306 153,690 NA NA NA NA NA 14.3 NA NA 30.0 93,314 84,624
2021 120,725 119,771 35,748 276 NA NA NA 12.5 NA NA 16.1 101,288 93,979
2022 91,608 64,745 19,445 2 1,093,828 1,269,628 17.1 10.5 978,445 1,059,526 4.6 87,394 93,999
2023 66,355 162,586 17,171 25 1,238,593 1,484,730 NA 8.6 1,132,330 1,099,232 NA NA NA
2024 NA 136,897 15,204 3,203 1,077,086 NA NA 6.5 1,006,561 1,039,112 NA NA NA

Figure 10: Western Arctic Population lesser snow goose abundance in winter in California. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s minimum population objective.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 1,006,561
3-year indexa 1,039,112
LTA 496,415
Objective 300,000
% change from LTA 103
% change from obj 246
Mgmt index (n years) 3
a 2022, 2023, 2024

Harvest Strategy
Western Arctic Population of Lesser Snow Geese

Management index: Total lesser snow geese in winter in California.

Management thresholds:
≥300,000 Standard Restrictive

Management prescription: Standard.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

Figure 11: Wrangel Island Population lesser snow goose adult abundance in winter in Skagit-Fraser River Delta areas. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s minimum population objective.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 87,394
3-year indexa 93,999
LTA 50,166
Objective 70,000
% change from LTA 74
% change from obj 34
Mgmt index (n years) 3
a 2020, 2021, 2022

Wrangel Island Population of Lesser Snow Geese

Management index: Total adult lesser snow geese in winter in Skagit-Fraser River Delta areas.

Management thresholds:
≥70,000 Standard
Restrictive

Management prescription: NA.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

Data Table 11: White-fronted Goose, MP

Original data source: Lincoln (harvest/harvest rate) estimates of adult abundance in summer and adult harvest rate; USFWS Headquarters. Data maintained by USFWS Headquarters.

Provided in the table below are adult abundance (N) and standard error (N.SE) of Midcontinent Population white-fronted geese in summer and harvest rate (h) and standard error (h.SE). Also provided are the moving 3-year average abundance (N.M3yr) and harvest rate (h.M3yr) and associated standard errors (N.M3yr.SE and h.M3yr.SE).

Table 11. Midcontinent Population white-fronted goose adult abundance in summer and harvest rate, 1976-2024. Note that moving 3-year averages are calculated as the most recent three years regardless of missing data so long as there are at least 2 years of data.
Year N N.SE N.M3yr N.M3yr.SE hrate hrate.SE h.M3yr h.M3yr.SE
1976 399,195 66,443 NA NA 0.096 0.015 NA NA
1977 524,380 91,402 NA NA 0.090 0.015 NA NA
1978 519,507 76,873 481,028 45,693 0.109 0.014 0.098 0.008
1979 563,147 83,512 535,678 47,999 0.090 0.012 0.096 0.008
1980 NA NA 541,327 56,429 NA NA 0.099 0.009
1981 NA NA 563,147 83,398 NA NA 0.090 0.012
1982 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1983 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1984 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1985 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1986 777,215 362,356 777,215 369,101 0.058 0.034 0.058 0.034
1987 933,857 256,517 855,536 223,489 0.051 0.014 0.055 0.018
1988 1,291,574 358,819 1,000,882 190,626 0.038 0.011 0.049 0.013
1989 1,665,397 495,742 1,296,943 220,419 0.039 0.012 0.043 0.007
1990 3,246,087 870,907 2,067,686 354,519 0.023 0.006 0.033 0.006
1991 2,334,895 787,297 2,415,460 430,746 0.029 0.010 0.030 0.006
1992 1,033,830 200,690 2,204,937 405,170 0.068 0.012 0.040 0.006
1993 1,644,665 503,783 1,671,130 325,404 0.031 0.010 0.043 0.006
1994 2,026,828 465,967 1,568,441 239,580 0.040 0.009 0.047 0.006
1995 1,483,184 313,371 1,718,226 252,733 0.044 0.009 0.039 0.005
1996 1,769,749 376,424 1,759,920 229,307 0.054 0.011 0.046 0.006
1997 1,792,679 258,978 1,681,871 189,040 0.065 0.008 0.054 0.005
1998 2,240,477 381,031 1,934,302 201,373 0.043 0.007 0.054 0.005
1999 1,560,488 190,607 1,864,548 166,108 0.068 0.007 0.058 0.004
2000 2,669,886 351,903 2,156,950 183,532 0.056 0.006 0.056 0.004
2001 2,178,293 292,694 2,136,222 166,434 0.051 0.006 0.058 0.004
2002 2,872,882 450,864 2,573,687 216,679 0.035 0.005 0.047 0.003
2003 1,508,710 183,533 2,186,628 189,936 0.052 0.005 0.046 0.003
2004 1,884,996 225,501 2,088,863 176,849 0.043 0.004 0.043 0.003
2005 2,485,176 332,154 1,959,627 147,601 0.040 0.004 0.045 0.003
2006 3,009,015 419,688 2,459,729 195,573 0.030 0.003 0.037 0.002
2007 3,604,007 452,423 3,032,733 233,757 0.041 0.004 0.037 0.002
2008 3,702,986 478,901 3,438,670 259,141 0.032 0.003 0.034 0.002
2009 3,493,229 490,570 3,600,074 273,144 0.023 0.003 0.032 0.002
2010 2,917,507 381,870 3,371,241 260,245 0.035 0.004 0.030 0.002
2011 2,909,280 350,174 3,106,672 238,521 0.028 0.003 0.029 0.002
2012 2,723,369 311,246 2,850,052 200,520 0.036 0.003 0.033 0.002
2013 3,622,743 458,362 3,085,131 219,152 0.029 0.003 0.031 0.002
2014 3,765,799 527,504 3,370,637 256,895 0.034 0.004 0.033 0.002
2015 2,286,219 346,798 3,224,920 262,591 0.035 0.005 0.033 0.002
2016 3,006,259 394,816 3,019,426 248,350 0.043 0.004 0.037 0.003
2017 2,362,190 311,431 2,551,556 202,343 0.050 0.005 0.043 0.003
2018 2,803,648 377,088 2,724,032 206,038 0.038 0.004 0.044 0.003
2019 2,300,256 375,028 2,488,698 202,565 0.044 0.006 0.044 0.003
2020 NA NA 2,551,952 261,368 NA NA 0.041 0.004
2021 3,194,655 531,447 2,747,455 323,945 0.027 0.004 0.035 0.004
2022 1,278,379 172,583 2,236,517 277,603 0.054 0.006 0.040 0.004
2023 2,749,577 342,915 2,407,537 216,014 0.038 0.004 0.039 0.003
2024 NA NA NA NA 0.049 0.006 0.047 0.003

Figure 12: Midcontinent Population white-fronted goose abundance in summer. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% and 70% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Councils’ minimum population objective and the restriction threshold if abundance is below 1.2 million geese AND adult harvest rate is above 0.075. The red reference line is the closure threshold.
Time series statistics for abundace
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 2,749,577 342,915 2,077,464 3,421,689
3-year indexa 2,407,537 216,014 1,984,149 2,830,925
LTA 2,159,666
Objective 1,200,000
% change from LTA 27
% change from obj 101
Mgmt index (n years) 3
a 2021, 2022, 2023

Figure 13: Midcontinent Population white-fronted goose adult harvest rate. Circles are annual estimates of harvest rate with 95% and 70% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence intervals (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The red dashed reference line is the restriction threshold if abundance is below 1.2 million geese (minumum population objective) AND adult harvest rate is above 0.075.
Time series statistics for harvest rate
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 0.049 0.006 0.037 0.061
3-year indexa 0.047 0.003 0.040 0.053
LTA 0.047
Objective
% change from LTA 3.722
% change from obj
Mgmt index (n years) 3.000
a 2022, 2023, 2024

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Adult white-fronted geese in winter and harvest rate.

Management thresholds:
N≥1,200,000 or h≤7.5 Standard
N<1,200,000 and h>7.5 Restrictive
N<250,000 Closed

Management prescription: Standard.

Regulatory alternatives:
Only the alternatives for the Pacific Flyway are shown here, and specifically Alaska. See the management plan for other flyway and state specific alternatives.
Standard and Restrictive
Season length is 107 days, bracket dates September 1 and January 26, and the daily bag limit is 4 geese

Decision framework: The Management prescription is based on two state variables; abundance and harvest rate. The probability distribution of the most recent 3-year averages relative to threshold values is used in a decision-analysis framework for setting harvest regulations. Eighty five percent of the distribution (confidence in the parameter estimate) must be below or above critical thresholds to prescribe a specific regulatory alternative. The 85% distribution corresponds to a confidence interval (CI) of 70% for the parameter estimate. Thus, if the upper or lower 70% CI for the parameter falls below or above the critical threshold value, then >85% of the distribution is below or above the threshold. The season is closed when >85% of the distribution for the most recent 3-year average population size is below 250,000 geese. A restrictive regulatory alternative is prescribed when >85% of the distribution for the most recent 3-year average population size is below 1,200,000 geese AND >85% of the distribution for the most recent 3-year average harvest rate is above 7.5%. A standard regulatory alternative is prescribed when conditions are not meet for either the restrictive or closed season regulatory alternatives.

Data Table 12: White-fronted Goose, PP

Original data source: California Fall Survey of White-fronted Geese and Yukon Kuskokwim Coastal Zone Survey and Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS; strata 8 (Bristol Bay) and 9 (YKD Inland); California and USFWS Alaska Region. Data maintained by California, USFWS Alaska Region, and USFWS Pacific Flyway Office.

Provided in the table below are abundance and standard error (SE) of Pacific Population white-fronted geese by survey and area including California Fall Survey (CAfall), and Yukon Kuskokwim Coastal Zone Survey (YKDCZ) and Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS; strata 8 and 9). Also provided are the total for all spring survey areas (Spring). Total spring abundance is projected to fall abundance (PrjFall) via a fixed factor (estimated = 3.2334, SE = 0.1006) for visibility bias. Also provided are the projected fall abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 12. Pacific Population white-fronted goose abundance in spring, 1985-2025.
Year CAfall YKDCZ YKDCZ.SE WPBHS8 WPBHS8.SE WPBHS9 WPBHS9.SE Spring Spring.SE PrjFall PrjFall.SE M3yr M3yr.SE
1985 93,900 17,398 841 6,241 3,467 9,563 3,735 33,203 5,165 107,358 17,038 NA NA
1986 107,100 12,988 798 5,273 2,513 8,984 2,872 27,245 3,899 88,093 12,907 NA NA
1987 130,600 14,167 1,247 4,520 2,044 6,665 2,001 25,352 3,121 81,972 10,412 92,475 13,727
1988 124,690 23,459 1,388 4,842 1,358 12,365 2,100 40,666 2,860 131,490 10,117 100,519 11,215
1989 263,350 26,546 2,022 6,672 3,125 9,853 2,723 43,070 4,611 139,264 15,535 117,576 12,276
1990 237,050 36,096 3,315 2,475 903 14,973 2,577 53,544 4,295 173,129 14,901 147,961 13,732
1991 215,655 30,180 1,977 5,596 1,592 11,205 2,604 46,981 3,637 151,910 12,679 154,768 14,424
1992 230,675 32,494 2,140 8,716 4,503 11,012 1,608 52,223 5,238 168,857 17,741 164,632 15,249
1993 253,820 39,976 2,696 1,614 939 19,320 5,259 60,910 5,984 196,946 20,305 172,571 17,203
1994 298,930 55,801 3,177 5,058 3,654 8,694 1,375 69,553 5,033 224,892 17,723 196,898 18,629
1995 251,970 77,149 4,623 3,228 1,331 8,501 1,692 88,878 5,099 287,377 18,764 236,405 18,961
1996 350,850 76,457 4,392 5,380 2,319 27,241 4,775 109,078 6,889 352,693 24,843 288,320 20,683
1997 318,954 82,489 4,561 4,520 3,444 20,286 4,473 107,294 7,258 346,924 25,842 328,998 23,360
1998 413,100 86,930 3,180 2,367 1,143 18,643 4,036 107,940 5,264 349,015 20,199 349,544 23,756
1999 285,514 90,843 6,265 4,304 1,682 25,107 3,966 120,253 7,603 388,828 27,411 361,589 24,679
2000 284,044 86,186 5,853 2,045 1,164 16,080 4,920 104,310 7,734 337,277 27,133 358,373 25,136
2001 337,848 111,746 6,713 7,533 5,867 23,414 6,551 142,693 11,064 461,384 38,563 395,829 31,489
2002 402,565 88,345 5,753 6,564 2,856 16,644 2,916 111,553 7,054 360,696 25,430 386,452 30,930
2003 424,900 117,920 10,007 2,690 1,410 16,644 5,557 137,254 11,533 443,796 39,783 421,959 35,197
2004 337,971 98,802 6,496 2,260 1,211 15,891 1,899 116,953 6,875 378,157 25,161 394,217 30,889
2005 508,890 104,802 6,482 8,071 5,989 17,772 4,371 130,645 9,848 422,428 34,464 414,794 33,682
2006 426,300 136,752 8,244 5,811 2,331 27,739 3,901 170,302 9,413 550,656 34,943 450,414 31,843
2007 476,009 163,757 10,107 2,690 1,536 27,269 6,097 193,717 11,903 626,363 43,158 533,149 37,733
2008 602,699 162,157 10,086 1,291 756 53,025 14,940 216,473 18,042 699,944 62,297 625,654 48,182
2009 457,802 143,307 9,225 6,349 2,492 31,313 11,495 180,969 14,948 585,144 51,671 637,150 52,957
2010 783,648 174,891 15,781 9,792 3,889 42,503 8,751 227,186 18,460 734,584 63,943 673,224 59,552
2011 646,501 168,421 11,668 7,533 3,436 32,535 9,153 208,489 15,223 674,127 53,528 664,619 56,639
2012 831,955 181,861 14,917 4,627 1,983 45,229 12,819 231,718 19,768 749,236 68,067 719,316 62,148
2013 NA 162,885 15,256 6,779 4,147 28,304 14,634 197,968 21,543 640,110 72,482 687,825 65,197
2014 663,257 198,370 28,544 1,184 710 16,268 5,460 215,821 29,070 697,837 96,516 695,728 80,004
2015 634,478 154,044 12,141 1,399 466 18,315 9,463 173,758 15,400 561,829 52,798 633,259 76,063
2016 727,419 206,356 16,707 2,260 1,624 23,884 10,902 232,500 20,016 751,767 68,848 670,477 74,929
2017 743,488 211,446 14,231 450 288 28,869 9,727 240,764 17,240 778,488 60,806 697,361 61,169
2018 646,965 186,626 22,200 1,291 1,087 11,284 3,893 199,201 22,565 644,097 75,700 724,784 68,721
2019 647,040 144,268 13,905 1,076 486 14,105 9,560 159,449 16,881 515,562 56,918 646,049 64,981
2020 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2021 NA 126,621 6,732 2,152 1,222 28,586 12,332 157,359 14,103 508,805 48,292 556,155 61,380
2022 NA 170,572 13,651 861 867 37,989 18,424 209,422 22,946 677,146 77,163 567,171 61,984
2023 570,391 118,548 10,434 0 0 13,165 7,794 131,713 13,024 425,881 44,167 537,277 58,415
2024 457,773 107,497 7,969 1,563 1,576 19,371 5,835 128,431 10,002 415,268 34,841 506,098 55,132
2025 NA 124,023 9,448 861 867 20,123 13,667 145,007 16,638 468,864 55,765 436,671 45,732

Figure 14: Pacific Population white-fronted goose abundance in fall. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s population objective. The and the red reference line is the closure threshold.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 468,864 55,765 359,565 578,163
3-year indexa 436,671 45,732 347,036 526,306
LTA 431,521
Objective 300,000
% change from LTA 9
% change from obj 46
Mgmt index (n years) 3
a 2023, 2024, 2025

Harvest Strategy
Management index: White-fronted geese projected in fall.

Management thresholds:
>300,000 Standard
>100,000 Restrictive
Closed

Management prescription: Standard.

Note that the Restrictive alternative will be prescribed when the most recent moving 3-year average abundance is increasing from below 100,000 to at least 120,000 birds.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

Harvest management should promote maintenance of the population goal: a 3-year average projected fall index of 300,000 geese. When the population is above objective, the harvest rate should not exceed 15% of the most recent 3-year average index. If the population index drops below the objective level of 300,000, harvest rate should not exceed 10% of the most recent 3-year average projected fall population index. If the 3-year average population index drops below 100,000 geese, all hunting should be suspended throughout the flyway. After a season closure, the 3-year average abundance must exceed 120,000 birds before harvest may be considered.

Data Table 13: White-fronted Goose, Tule

Original data source: Cooperative Pacific Flyway Mark-resight Survey in California, Oregon, and Alaska; California and USFWS Pacific Flyway Office. Data maintained by California.

Provided in the table below are abundance (Estimate) and standard error (SE) of Tule white-fronted geese in fall. Also provided are the estimated number of marked (Marks) geese in the population, estimated ratio (Ratio) of marked geese to total geese, and the abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 13. Tule white-fronted goose abundance in fall, 2003-2024.
Year Marks Marks.SE Ratio Ratio.SE Estimate Estimate.SE M3yr M3yr.SE
2003 47 0.0 373 72.4 17,536 3,404 NA NA
2004 60 0.0 152 44.8 9,115 2,687 NA NA
2005 51 1.3 293 119.5 15,030 6,144 13,894 4,342
2006 81 0.0 412 134.4 33,342 10,890 19,162 7,384
2007 88 0.5 189 40.0 16,640 3,526 21,671 7,501
2008 75 0.5 147 35.4 11,039 2,663 20,340 6,785
2009 54 1.1 248 55.8 13,399 3,026 13,693 3,092
2010 58 0.0 293 79.3 17,002 4,598 13,814 3,530
2011 53 0.5 224 42.4 11,920 2,257 14,107 3,435
2012 59 0.8 273 80.0 16,269 4,763 15,064 4,038
2013 50 0.0 220 65.7 10,975 3,285 13,055 3,586
2014 56 0.4 159 42.3 8,940 2,373 12,062 3,611
2015 59 0.3 164 32.1 9,667 1,900 9,861 2,584
2016 56 0.0 329 91.2 18,445 5,106 12,351 3,431
2017 60 0.5 284 68.8 17,124 4,145 15,079 3,953
2018 45 0.3 155 34.5 6,992 1,557 14,187 3,902
2019 54 0.5 303 90.8 16,446 4,927 13,521 3,825
2020 30 1.6 395 127.2 12,048 3,934 11,829 3,749
2021 25 0.6 463 221.8 11,713 5,625 13,402 4,878
2022 33 2.0 400 190.5 13,029 6,272 12,263 5,368
2023 39 0.0 248 64.9 9,655 2,529 11,466 5,079
2024 26 0.0 258 74.4 6,721 1,934 9,802 4,061

Figure 15: Tule white-fronted goose abundance in fall Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s minimum population objective.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 6,721 1,934 2,931 10,511
3-year indexa 9,802 4,061 1,842 17,762
LTA 14,111
Objective 10,000
% change from LTA -52
% change from obj -2
Mgmt index (n years) 3
a 2022, 2023, 2024

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Total white-fronted geese in fall.

Management thresholds: N/A.

Management prescription: N/A.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

Data Table 14: Trumpeter Swan, PP

Original data source: Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) strata in Alaska (i.e., strata 1–4, 6, and 7); USFWS Alaska Region. Data maintained by the USFWS Alaska Region.

Provided in the table below are abundance and standard error (SE) of Pacific Population trumpeter swans by WBPHS area (strata 1–4, 6, and 7) and in total (Total) in spring. Also provided are the total abundance moving 3-year average (M3yr) and standard error (M3yr.SE).

Table 14. Pacific Population trumpeter swan abundance in spring, 1964-2025.
Year WPBHS1 WPBHS1.SE WPBHS2 WPBHS2.SE WPBHS3 WPBHS3.SE WPBHS4 WPBHS4.SE WPBHS6 WPBHS6.SE WPBHS7 WPBHS7.SE Total Total.SE M3yr M3yr.SE
1964 110 120 150 155 465 217 0 0 922 819 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1965 220 241 375 200 1,198 603 154 143 205 121 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1966 330 179 0 0 845 347 0 0 205 195 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1967 935 456 1,050 380 913 418 0 0 64 69 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1968 110 108 750 397 493 213 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1969 385 271 150 98 986 302 0 0 102 98 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1970 440 261 750 404 845 479 0 0 102 70 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1971 715 235 1,875 663 1,198 418 0 0 359 207 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1972 440 314 1,125 440 1,480 571 0 0 205 121 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1973 110 54 1,200 484 1,057 502 0 0 461 294 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1974 0 0 1,050 579 916 303 135 127 256 125 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1975 330 162 3,450 2,110 775 453 135 127 666 427 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1976 220 108 1,950 512 1,198 459 135 141 359 241 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1977 330 216 2,775 725 1,198 529 0 0 410 390 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1978 330 361 1,725 789 2,114 699 270 283 410 287 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1979 330 194 1,800 901 2,043 706 270 156 615 376 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1980 220 152 2,100 465 2,959 844 0 0 1,281 743 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1981 990 766 2,850 1,614 1,550 570 135 141 1,076 551 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1982 440 295 2,400 816 3,805 1,724 0 0 512 317 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1983 385 189 3,225 896 3,382 1,208 0 0 871 341 NA NA NA NA NA NA
1984 550 269 4,950 2,892 2,607 738 0 0 410 222 740 178 9,257 3,010 NA NA
1985 1,375 559 3,750 1,307 4,086 1,126 0 0 1,025 561 840 210 11,076 1,910 NA NA
1986 385 214 3,600 1,251 2,748 815 0 0 410 150 920 137 8,063 1,522 9,465 2,238
1987 440 253 6,150 3,568 4,650 1,737 270 283 512 138 620 148 12,642 3,992 10,594 2,702
1988 385 108 4,350 1,109 4,861 1,535 135 141 871 250 500 215 11,103 1,931 10,603 2,707
1989 440 321 5,775 2,379 3,452 1,022 405 380 974 456 500 227 11,546 2,685 11,764 2,993
1990 110 108 4,500 1,496 6,693 2,250 0 0 769 382 660 176 12,732 2,737 11,794 2,478
1991 660 244 4,650 1,863 3,241 1,169 675 349 974 425 800 359 11,000 2,308 11,759 2,584
1992 330 126 4,200 621 4,368 1,129 540 270 410 150 680 193 10,528 1,346 11,420 2,208
1993 385 143 3,225 632 4,086 993 675 349 359 197 380 145 9,110 1,260 10,213 1,705
1994 440 332 3,825 961 4,086 772 1,080 648 359 133 720 320 10,510 1,473 10,049 1,362
1995 330 216 3,450 1,203 4,509 1,021 0 0 666 250 1,020 368 9,975 1,653 9,865 1,471
1996 660 396 4,125 886 6,552 1,555 405 380 974 364 1,040 234 13,756 1,921 11,414 1,693
1997 495 331 5,400 1,783 3,945 1,082 270 283 820 228 880 145 11,810 2,148 11,847 1,918
1998 55 54 4,950 1,375 6,834 1,734 0 0 922 390 1,020 82 13,782 2,249 13,116 2,111
1999 385 306 6,225 1,368 12,823 4,313 1,485 1,406 666 255 820 157 22,404 4,757 15,999 3,281
2000 550 209 4,350 1,460 11,273 5,071 10,530 8,815 2,306 742 1,260 241 30,269 10,306 22,152 6,681
2001 385 187 4,950 1,534 7,492 3,212 4,050 2,345 1,281 627 1,200 552 19,358 4,347 24,010 7,018
2002 660 205 3,375 1,004 6,905 1,747 1,215 817 1,076 239 1,080 335 14,311 2,223 21,313 6,584
2003 660 137 6,225 2,721 5,214 1,584 540 348 820 295 1,260 385 14,719 3,207 16,129 3,373
2004 935 294 3,450 1,046 5,989 1,609 540 391 1,281 387 1,480 382 13,675 2,054 14,235 2,546
2005 786 563 3,450 872 5,143 1,706 405 297 820 322 NA NA NA NA NA NA
2006 660 152 8,475 5,058 6,552 2,094 1,350 573 769 256 1,400 379 19,206 5,525 15,867 3,874
2007 605 367 5,400 1,366 9,159 2,945 1,485 734 1,435 582 660 180 18,744 3,404 17,208 3,930
2008 550 225 3,600 835 8,595 2,916 1,662 722 1,281 283 1,260 233 16,948 3,147 18,299 4,164
2009 605 104 3,150 1,001 8,455 2,613 810 538 1,742 411 620 126 15,382 2,884 17,025 3,152
2010 550 283 2,775 372 8,428 3,457 945 485 1,691 380 740 156 15,129 3,546 15,820 3,204
2011 1,161 412 2,925 474 8,948 2,352 1,350 499 1,896 497 720 179 17,000 2,540 15,837 3,019
2012 794 255 4,050 723 9,159 3,076 1,215 645 2,152 553 1,200 406 18,571 3,307 16,900 3,161
2013 NA NA 3,600 887 8,877 2,800 1,080 590 NA NA 960 264 NA NA NA NA
2014 1,039 437 1,341 562 6,466 1,736 3,915 1,774 1,589 451 1,420 302 15,770 2,639 17,114 2,849
2015 244 111 3,000 501 7,680 1,548 1,350 698 2,358 451 1,320 656 15,951 1,944 16,764 2,688
2016 550 189 2,925 387 7,116 1,904 540 391 1,896 525 1,000 235 14,027 2,073 15,249 2,239
2017 794 272 1,575 378 9,900 3,526 810 553 2,255 501 980 297 16,314 3,647 15,431 2,669
2018 733 434 2,775 1,060 6,130 2,156 3,510 876 1,794 404 680 155 15,622 2,629 15,321 2,858
2019 2,383 1,758 1,950 500 6,552 1,525 5,940 3,259 2,409 935 820 132 20,054 4,145 17,330 3,530
2020 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2021 756 412 2,730 1,269 5,231 1,588 1,890 1,072 2,358 1,122 1,280 271 14,245 2,605 16,640 3,208
2022 856 460 2,550 921 8,455 2,515 2,700 1,338 2,358 723 960 283 17,878 3,127 17,392 3,354
2023 428 182 NA NA 3,488 1,352 2,160 940 1,435 504 520 105 NA NA NA NA
2024 489 285 2,550 904 4,086 1,155 2,314 1,352 2,665 986 680 101 12,785 2,246 14,969 2,684
2025 1,161 330 1,300 624 6,539 1,988 8,640 5,776 2,358 650 1,060 225 21,058 6,188 17,240 4,208

Figure 16: Pacific Population trumpeter swans abundance in spring. Circles are annual estimates of abundance with 95% confidence intervals. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s minimum population objective.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 21,058 6,188 8,930 33,186
3-year indexa 17,240 4,208 8,993 25,487
LTA 14,737
Objective 10,000
% change from LTA 43
% change from obj 72
Mgmt index (n years) 3
a 2022, 2024, 2025

Harvest Strategy
Management index: Total trumpeter swans in spring.

Management thresholds: N/A.

Management prescription: N/A.

Regulatory alternatives:
Regulations fixed until changed.

Note that the Pacific Flyway Council has not yet determined the objective for this population. Early discussions by the Pacific Flyway Study Committee indicate a possible value of 10,000 birds.

Data Table 15: Trumpeter Swan, RMP US Segment

Original data source: Cooperative Fall Survey of the Rocky Mountain Population Trumpeter Swan US Segment; USFWS headquarters, USFWS Mountain-Prairie Region, USFWS Pacific Region, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Tribes, and National Park Service. Data maintained by USFWS Headquarters.

Provided in the table below are abundance of Rocky Mountain Population trumpeter swans by age class and in total (Total) in fall. Age classes include adult and subadult birds (White) and cygnets (Gray). Also provided are the proportion of the total for each age class and the moving 3-year average abundance for adult and subadult swans (WhiteM3yr) and in total (TotalM3yr).

Table 15. Rocky Mountain Population US segment trumpeter swans in fall, 1987-2024.
Year White Gray Total White% Gray% White.M3yr Total.M3yr
1967 580 58 638 91 9 NA NA
1968 489 174 663 74 26 NA NA
1969 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1970 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1971 477 95 572 83 17 515 624
1972 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1973 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1974 492 89 581 85 15 486 605
1975 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1976 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1977 454 90 544 83 17 474 566
1978 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1979 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1980 533 49 582 92 8 493 569
1981 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1982 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
1983 471 76 547 86 14 486 558
1984 496 67 563 88 12 500 564
1985 431 144 575 75 25 466 562
1986 365 87 452 81 19 431 530
1987 417 194 611 68 32 404 546
1988 513 146 659 78 22 432 574
1989 535 63 598 89 11 488 623
1990 468 158 626 75 25 505 628
1991 446 109 555 80 20 483 593
1992 465 98 563 83 17 460 581
1993 303 51 354 86 14 405 491
1994 302 152 454 67 33 357 457
1995 365 62 427 85 15 323 412
1996 380 78 458 83 17 349 446
1997 358 69 427 84 16 368 437
1998 364 105 469 78 22 367 451
1999 347 70 417 83 17 356 438
2000 372 109 481 77 23 361 456
2001 416 71 487 85 15 378 462
2002 347 60 407 85 15 378 458
2003 357 96 453 79 21 373 449
2004 318 106 424 75 25 341 428
2005 430 111 541 79 21 368 473
2006 438 99 537 82 18 395 501
2007 449 133 582 77 23 439 553
2008 450 70 520 87 13 446 546
2009 486 90 576 84 16 462 559
2010 467 127 594 79 21 468 563
2011 497 132 629 79 21 483 600
2012 554 217 771 72 28 506 665
2013 684 144 828 83 17 578 743
2014 607 186 793 77 23 615 797
2015 742 253 995 75 25 678 872
2016 758 237 995 76 24 702 928
2017 823 204 1,027 80 20 774 1,006
2018 852 228 1,080 79 21 811 1,034
2019 794 165 959 83 17 823 1,022
2020 857 173 1,030 83 17 834 1,023
2021 793 201 994 80 20 815 994
2022 726 214 940 77 23 792 988
2023 690 236 926 75 25 736 953
2024 695 308 1,003 69 31 704 956

Figure 17: Rocky Mountain Population US breeding segment trumpeter swan white bird (subadult and adult) abundance in fall. Circles are annual estimates of abundance. The red line is a moving 3-year average and the blue line is a smoothed (Loess model) line with 95% confidence interval (shaded area) fit to the annual estimates. The blue dashed reference line is the Pacific Flyway Council’s population objective.
Time series statistics
Parameter Estimate SE L95%CI U95%CI
1-year index 695
3-year indexa 704
LTA 510
Objective 718
% change from LTA 36
% change from obj -3
Mgmt index (n years)